Tuesday, 17 June 2025
- UK feed wheat futures (Nov-25) closed at £178.00/t yesterday, down £1.85/t (-1.0%) from Friday’s close. The May-26 contract fell £1.40/t over the same period, to close at £188.80/t.
- Domestic wheat prices followed movements in global grain markets yesterday. Chicago wheat and Paris milling wheat futures (Dec-25) fell 1.2% and 0.8% respectively at yesterday’s close. As was the case last week, wheat futures started the current week with a decrease in prices, mainly due to more favourable weather conditions in the EU and Russia.
- Nov-25 Paris rapeseed futures ended yesterday’s session at €495.75/t, down €4.00/t from Friday’s session. Meanwhile, Winnipeg canola and Chicago soyabean futures (Nov-25) increased 1.8% and 0.6% respectively. Chicago soyabean oil futures (Dec-25) rose 8.3% at yesterday’s close supported by the US Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations.
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UK wheat and maize imports remained high in April, although the pace of barley exports did also pick up somewhat, according to latest HMRC trade data.
In April, barley exports totalled 117.6 Kt, which was a 47% increase on the figures compared to March and representing the highest monthly total since December 2022. Furthermore, the volume of barley exported in April, was the highest for that month since April 2020. While there was an uptick in shipments in April, the pace of barley exports in 2024/25 remains historically slow. Season to date (Jul-Apr) exports are at 576.7 Kt, down 17% on the year and the lowest cumulative total for this point in the season since 2012/13.
Wheat exports in April picked up very slightly to total 23.4 Kt, taking season to date exports to 154.4 Kt, 30% down on the year and again the lowest July to April cumulative level in at least three decades (our digital records go back to 1992/93).
On the other hand, wheat imports remained relatively strong. In April, UK wheat imports (including durum wheat) totalled 193.6 Kt, which is a 21% decrease compared to March. While this is the lowest volume the UK has imported since February 2024, it remains historically high. Wheat imports totalled 2.6 Mt from July – April, up 40% on the same period last year, and up 71% on the five-year average. In May, AHDB estimated full-season wheat imports at 2.9 Mt, with imports expected to slow somewhat during the latter part of the season. In order to achieve this estimate, imports would need to slow to an average pace of 151.7 Kt a month in May and June.
Maize imports also remained high in April. At 314.3 Kt, April maize imports are down 16.2% compared to March, but remains the second highest monthly volume imported this season (behind March). Season-to-date (Jul-Apr) maize imports totalled 2.68 Mt, up 20% on year earlier levels, and 30% on the five-year average. In May, AHDB estimated full-season imports would total 2.83 Mt. To achieve this estimate, the import pace would need to slow to an average of 72.2 Kt per month in May and June, which is well below the current pace.
As of April, the total volume of UK wheat and maize imports for the 2024/25 season had reached a record high, surpassing both the previous season and the five-year average. However, imports of both wheat and maize decreased in April compared to March, albeit imports in April historically tend to be lower than March levels.
Market participants in the UK are focusing on the volume of wheat and maize imported, as well as the volume of barley and wheat exported in May and June of the current season, as changes to the expected full-season trade would also affect the carry-in stocks and supply outlook for next season. This could, of course, also impact the price of the 2025 domestic grain harvest.
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